When you’re evaluating a real estate market’s affordability, you’re looking at more than just the “sticker price” of homes. You’re also considering incomes, mortgage rates, inventory, job growth, and how all of that stacks up relative to other markets. That’s exactly what we’re doing for the Tucson, Arizona area in 2026 — how affordable is it, and how does it compare?

Current State of Tucson’s Market

Here are some recent data points to set the scene:

• According to the Economic & Business Research Center (EBRC) at The University of Arizona, in the Tucson metropolitan area a typical household would need to spend about 45% of its income for a mortgage on a median-priced home (as of mid-2025).

• The average home value in Tucson (per Zillow) was around $324,535, representing a ~3.5% decline year-over-year.

• Forecasts from data provider WalletInvestor suggest average home price in Tucson may hover around $220,000-$230,000 in 2026 under one model.

• In Arizona overall, median home prices are expected to rise by ~4% in 2026.

What do these numbers tell us? They tell us affordability in Tucson is challenged, but relative to many other metro markets, better than the worst. Spending ~45% of income on a mortgage is high — traditionally you'd prefer closer to 30-35% — but for many popular metros in the U.S., ratios are even worse.

Why Tucson Shows Better Affordability Compared to Some Markets

Here are the factors that give Tucson an edge (and also the caveats):

Positives

• Lower home prices compared to many other Western U.S. markets. As one investment-market commentary puts it: you can buy rental-quality properties in Tucson in the $200k-$350k range that in places like Phoenix might cost $400k-$600k.

• Growing job sectors: Tucson is seeing growth in manufacturing, healthcare, education, which bodes well for local incomes.

• Inventory appears to be improving (though still tight) which helps buyers.

Caveats

• Even with relative affordability, the 45% income-to-mortgage ratio is still high. It means many households may struggle.

• Mortgage rates remain elevated, which reduces buying power. National projections suggest rates may slowly decline to ~6.1-6.2% by end of 2026.

• Price growth, while moderate, is still there. For buyers hoping for a steep drop, that may not happen. For example, forecasts show roughly ~2-4% growth or stability in Tucson through 2026.

How Tucson Will Rank for Affordability in 2026

Putting it all together, here’s how I (Ryan Comstock) rate Tucson’s affordability in 2026:

• Better than many high-cost metros: If you compare Tucson with places like Los Angeles, San Francisco, or even some fast-growing Sunbelt markets, it remains more accessible.

• Challenging for many first-time buyers: Even though homes cost less than many places, the ratio of income to cost is still elevated. Many buyers will feel the pinch.

• Reasonable for strategic buyers/investors: For those with decent income, savings, and a plan, Tucson offers value — especially if you act before anticipated moderate price growth takes full effect.

I’d rank Tucson in the middle tier of affordability in 2026: not a bargain, but also not among the least affordable. If I were to assign a grade, I’d give it something like “B-” for affordability — decent, but with room for improvement.

Tips for Buyers Considering Tucson in 2026

If you’re thinking of buying in Tucson, here are some strategic pointers:

1. Lock in a good rate — Since you’ll pay more if the mortgage rate is high. Even small rate changes matter.

2. Don’t rely on steep drops — Forecasts show moderate growth, not big declines. Plan for stability rather than bargains.

3. Target neighborhoods with value — Tucson has multiple sub-markets; some may offer better affordability for the same lifestyle.

4. Check your income vs. cost — If your projected mortgage + taxes + insurance will exceed ~35-40% of your take-home pay, consider waiting or adjusting.

5. Think about long-term value — With moderate growth and solid job/income fundamentals, buying in Tucson can make sense if you plan to stay 5-10 years.

6. Work with a local expert — Having someone who knows the Tucson market inside-out can help you identify hidden value, negotiate well, and avoid pitfalls.

Why I’m Confident in Tucson’s Outlook

With job growth, continuous in-migration (especially from higher-cost states), relatively affordable inventory compared to some coastal markets, and reasonably stable economic fundamentals, I believe Tucson is poised to hold its ground in 2026. I’m optimistic—but cautious.

Contact Me

If you’d like to explore homes in Tucson, understand which neighborhoods offer the best value, or discuss how to make a move in this market, I’d be glad to help.
Ryan Comstock
Phone: 520-261-4669
Website: www.ryancomstock.com
Email: [email protected]